R
Roxanne Cleo
Cleo & Co Realty · License VA 0225-099311 · (703) 555-0148 · roxanne@cleoandco.example
PREPARED FOR
Sample Buyer
September 13, 2026
ANALYSIS BY
Prelio
10109 Lomond Dr, Manassas, VA 20109
44 DAYS ON MARKET · ZIP AVG 29
3 bed · 2 bath · 1,258 sqft · built 1963
ASK
$459,900
ESTIMATE
$462,000
READ THIS FIRST
Every figure below assumes 25% down on a 30-year mortgage at 6.50%. Confirm your rate and terms with a lender before you rely on a single number in this brief. A rate a point higher moves every figure on both pages.
DO THE NUMBERS WORK?
Yes, historical price growth has been strong.
Not at the ask. Open at $457,200, walk above $459,900.
WHAT TO OFFER
$457,200
0.6% under ask · room to settle at $459,900
THE PRICE LADDER
Where this deal stops working, and why
STRONG
YOUR RANGE
$457,200
OPEN HERE
$459,900
YOUR CEILING · ASK
Open at $457,200 because 44 days on market against a zip average of 29 supports asking for 0.6% off. That is where the evidence, not optimism, puts it.
Walk above $459,900 because above it the growth this property needs to cover its carry passes the 5.7% a year it has actually managed. Below it, what prices have done here covers what the house costs to hold.
THE SAME HOUSE, TWO PRICES
25% down at 6.50%, reserves held back, rent at $2,694
AT ASK · $459,900
AT THE RECOMMENDED PRICE · $457,200
Discount from ask
0.0%
0.6%
Monthly cash flow
−$421
−$408
Cash-on-cash return
-3.9%
-3.8%
Loan coverage (DSCR)
1.04×
1.04×
5-year annualized return
14.9%
14.9%
Cash to close
$128,772
$128,016
Day-one equity against the estimate
+$2,100
+$4,800
WHY THE ASK IS THE WRONG PRICE
1
This house has been sitting.
44 days on market against a zip average of 29. A listing that has outlasted its market by that much has already told you the asking price is wrong. The seller has had 44 days to learn it too.
THIS HOUSE
44 days
ZIP AVERAGE
29 days
1.5× THE ZIP AVERAGE
2
The ask does not clear the return you set.
At $459,900 the cash-on-cash return falls under the 5% floor you set. At $457,200 it clears. That gap is the whole argument for the lower number.
AT THE RECOMMENDED PRICE
−$408/mo
AT THE ASK
−$421/mo
+$13/MO AT THE LOWER PRICE
Page 1 of 2 · Informational only, not financial advice
How wrong can this brief be before the deal breaks?
This property does not pay for itself at either price. Every figure below is a monthly cost to carry it, and the gap column is what the lower price saves you.
10109 Lomond Dr
Roxanne Cleo
STRESS TEST · MONTHLY CASH FLOW
The same 6 shocks, run at both prices
WHAT GOES WRONG
AT THE ASK · $459,900
AT THE RECOMMENDED PRICE · $457,200
GAP
As briefed
$2,694 rent, 6.50% rate, no HOA, 5% vacancy
−$421
−$408
+$13
Rent comes in at $2,450
What this size of house may actually fetch
−$653
−$640
+$13
Rate rises to 7.18%
Auction and investor financing price above conventional
−$578
−$564
+$14
A $200 HOA turns up
None reported for this parcel, unverified
−$621
−$608
+$13
Two months empty in year one
A property bought below market often needs work first
−$870
−$857
+$13
All three at once
$2,450 rent, 7.18%, $200 HOA
−$1,009
−$996
+$14
WHERE THIS STOPS WORKING
Rent and rate measured at $457,200
RENT NEEDED
$3,124
Rent would have to rise 16% for this to cover its own costs.
RATE CAN RISE TO
—
The cash flow is already negative at today's rate.
PRICE CAN GO TO
$459,900
Above this your return drops under the 5% you set.
BEFORE YOU BID
6 things this brief cannot tell you, in the order they matter
InspectionDEAL-BREAKING
Every figure here assumes the house is in the condition the listing implies.
Title and liensDEAL-BREAKING
A clean title is assumed. Confirm it before you commit to a price.
Financing termsDEAL-BREAKING
The rate above is an assumption. A lender quote can move every number.
HOA−$2,400/YR
None is reported. At $200 a month it would remove a large share of the cash flow above.
Roof and HVAC age−$14,000 ONCE
Built 1963. A roof replacement is roughly two years of cash flow.
Local rent readFREE
Get one quote on a house this size from a manager who works this zip.
WHAT THE NUMBERS REST ON
Nearby sales set the price, nearby rentals set the rent
SOLD NEARBY · SUPPORTS THE $462,000 ESTIMATE
$535,000
8911 Peabody St · Aug 2026
$545,000
9254 Garnet Ct · Aug 2026
$450,000
9300 Baker St · Jul 2026
RENTED NEARBY
$2,700
10003 Lomond Dr, Manassas, VA 20109 · 1,310 sqft · 0.2 mi
$2,700
7815 Appomattox Ave, Manassas, VA 20111 · 1,184 sqft · 1.3 mi
$2,242
8343 Irongate Way, Manassas, VA 20109 · 1,302 sqft · 0.6 mi
SCHOOLS
What the assigned schools do to demand and resale
C.A. Sinclair Elementary School(0.4 mi)6/10
Unity Braxton Middle School(0.1 mi)2/10
Unity Reed High School(1.3 mi)1/10
WHAT THIS PROPERTY IS TELLING YOU
Read across the signals, not one at a time
The owner bought this 1963 home for $395,000 in mid-2022 and is now asking $459,900 after four years, a gain that appears solid on paper but masks a stubborn reality: the property is sitting 50% longer than neighborhood comps and still needs to drop toward $450,700 to work as a rental investment. That slow sale combined with a 16% price increase over four years (roughly 3.8% annually) suggests the owner has been holding at an aspirational price rather than moving it at market pace, which is typical behavior when an owner believes in the property but the rental fundamentals are struggling. The core problem is not the price alone but the tenant pool this property can attract: schools are weak across the board, with the high school rated 1 out of 10, which immediately narrows demand to parents with few educational alternatives or to non-family tenants, and a 4.59% cap rate paired with negative monthly cash flow of $421 means rent barely covers carrying costs even if you negotiate closer to the Prelio recommendation. A 61-year-old structure with no HOA to share maintenance costs creates another headwind: a single major repair (roof, HVAC, foundation) could wipe months of rent, and buyers sensitive to school quality (the largest tenant demographic in most markets) will look elsewhere first. Before offering, get a foundation inspection and a detailed roof assessment, since a 1963 home in this condition and price tier will be carrying significant deferred maintenance that a standard appraisal may not fully surface.
Roxanne Cleo · Cleo & Co Realty · License VA 0225-099311 · (703) 555-0148 · roxanne@cleoandco.example
Page 2 of 2 · Analysis by Prelio · Generated September 13, 2026